{ "ticker": { "uuid": "757d6e5b-eb91-42d0-95d4-62e2a891b47a", "symbol": "C40", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - AMUNDI CAC 40 ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.757, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.091, "architecture_energy": 60.886, "architecture_maturity": 22.519, "architecture_confidence": 75.415, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.73, "rotation_up": 56.95, "upward_expansion": 81.12, "deceleration": 56.31, "rotation_down": 22.46, "downward_expansion": 10.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.409334, 149.651638, 146.91943, 144.948431 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.360001, "trend_reference": 143.394, "distance_from_trend": 0.076475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.902949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170254, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.252687, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068827, "excess_performance": -0.102065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170254, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045682, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068827, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8845, "relative_activity": 0.504821, "balance": 0.895902, "dry_up": 1.051136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02401, "annualized_volatility": 0.182175, "from_high_reference": -0.004129, "from_low_reference": 0.210667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.394, "fair_value_reference": 131.902949, "structural_low": 127.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.004224, "positive_rate": 0.472222, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": -0.001127, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.093005, "worst_return": -0.116945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002321, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.032687, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.108207, "worst_return": -0.095363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056876, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.076372, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.129348, "worst_return": -0.151864, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 147.940002, "volume": 15894, "typical_volume": 15575.25, "trend": 142.699334, "fair_value": 131.121667, "relative_strength": -10.347475, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.358848, "energy": 73.065128, "activity_lines": [ 149.232004, 147.285457, 144.054287, 143.182753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 147.520004, "volume": 24834, "typical_volume": 16636.35, "trend": 142.821334, "fair_value": 131.295385, "relative_strength": -9.01994, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.722954, "energy": 64.431534, "activity_lines": [ 148.757337, 147.687275, 144.588954, 143.493764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.199997, "volume": 22798, "typical_volume": 16466.65, "trend": 142.972001, "fair_value": 131.461667, "relative_strength": -8.76538, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.197207, "energy": 43.915524, "activity_lines": [ 148.137335, 147.902547, 145.100287, 143.776259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.940002, "volume": 17191, "typical_volume": 17155.95, "trend": 143.159334, "fair_value": 131.671923, "relative_strength": -7.469821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.532997, "energy": 41.829218, "activity_lines": [ 148.569335, 148.448729, 145.833335, 144.225807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.360001, "volume": 8845, "typical_volume": 17521.05, "trend": 143.394, "fair_value": 131.902949, "relative_strength": -7.252687, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.090962, "energy": 60.886488, "activity_lines": [ 150.409334, 149.651638, 146.91943, 144.948431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }