{ "ticker": { "uuid": "757e399a-8b36-4dae-a5b0-facf26edd008", "symbol": "UT7EUA", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.582, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.394, "architecture_energy": 62.623, "architecture_maturity": 42.91, "architecture_confidence": 47.616, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.53, "rotation_up": 46.69, "upward_expansion": 78.33, "deceleration": 72.9, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.715333, 33.697909, 33.468095, 33.345583 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.715, "trend_reference": 33.175927, "distance_from_trend": 0.016249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.119591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.571931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030082, "excess_performance": -0.14081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016249, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022661, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.038236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.038236, "dry_up": 1.524717, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004084, "annualized_volatility": 0.048717, "from_high_reference": -0.007214, "from_low_reference": 0.049275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.175927, "fair_value_reference": 33.119591, "structural_low": 32.439999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003184, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.022607, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.020635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008257, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.038832, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.029834, "worst_return": -0.063693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.119849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.047203, "worst_return": -0.078885, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.437586, "energy": 84.549266, "activity_lines": [ 33.732333, 33.624636, 33.385071, 33.270386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.715, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 337.2, "trend": 33.14822, "fair_value": 33.107549, "relative_strength": -10.350572, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.430273, "energy": 73.663617, "activity_lines": [ 33.715666, 33.667454, 33.426666, 33.309017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.715, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 335.8, "trend": 33.175927, "fair_value": 33.119591, "relative_strength": -12.571931, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.394068, "energy": 62.622838, "activity_lines": [ 33.715333, 33.697909, 33.468095, 33.345583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }