{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75805ace-9e4b-4472-a1f3-de1d66dd7e78", "symbol": "688135", "name": "Guangdong Leadyo IC Testing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.921, "architecture_energy": 72.033, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.017, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.18, "rotation_up": 13.39, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 32.43, "rotation_down": 72.45, "downward_expansion": 86.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.654, 29.481454, 32.764476, 33.035419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.9, "trend_reference": 33.497333, "distance_from_trend": -0.256657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.811036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.94361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351225, "excess_performance": -0.308021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.699975, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199436, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.488304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351225, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.249958, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71874353, "relative_activity": 0.91988, "balance": 1.249958, "dry_up": 1.162782, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.257924, "annualized_volatility": 0.997986, "from_high_reference": -0.487232, "from_low_reference": 0.260759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.497333, "fair_value_reference": 22.811036, "structural_low": 19.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.124561, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.118026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469721, "worst_return": -0.074816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.090968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.520319, "worst_return": -0.135406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052126, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.964728, "worst_return": -0.155849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.522083, 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"2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.450933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166554, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.290566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.487251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"activity_lines": [ 30.528666, 33.631636, 34.835809, 34.42243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.01, "volume": 72662580, "typical_volume": 76950158.55, "trend": 33.592666, "fair_value": 22.786325, "relative_strength": -30.508957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.018716, "energy": 64.458991, "activity_lines": [ 26.343333, 31.029272, 33.595762, 33.596236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9, "volume": 71874353, "typical_volume": 78134460.0, "trend": 33.497333, "fair_value": 22.811036, "relative_strength": -19.94361, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.921106, "energy": 72.033057, "activity_lines": [ 24.654, 29.481454, 32.764476, 33.035419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }