{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7582a243-beaf-4ff2-bca4-d240a8fda180", "symbol": "WCN", "name": "Waste Connections Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 57.792, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.143, "architecture_energy": 26.157, "architecture_maturity": 10.574, "architecture_confidence": 45.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.87, "rotation_up": 50.56, "upward_expansion": 46.67, "deceleration": 39.27, "rotation_down": 22.39, "downward_expansion": 9.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.21713, 167.142758, 163.194259, 162.770922 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 166.71, "trend_reference": 163.066826, "distance_from_trend": 0.022342, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 168.17903, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008735, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.635982, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010395, "excess_performance": -0.13602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.346544, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7175689, "relative_activity": 0.938232, "balance": 1.346544, "dry_up": 0.909728, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048607, "annualized_volatility": 0.254973, "from_high_reference": -0.121496, "from_low_reference": 0.134931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 163.066826, "fair_value_reference": 168.17903, "structural_low": 146.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035843, "worst_return": 0.015866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035972, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.046156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161809, "worst_return": -0.088437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.114313, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189214, "worst_return": 0.039413, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }