{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7586ac9f-bb56-47a5-9425-342742f3ba92", "symbol": "1618", "name": "Hold-Key Electric Wire & Cable Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.688, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.586, "architecture_energy": 13.171, "architecture_maturity": 17.163, "architecture_confidence": 67.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.71, "rotation_up": 20.61, "upward_expansion": 13.97, "deceleration": 59.57, "rotation_down": 40.81, "downward_expansion": 63.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.396667, 39.392727, 39.74119, 40.073656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.700001, "trend_reference": 41.095, "distance_from_trend": 0.014722, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.971836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.033923, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040276, "excess_performance": -0.481648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014722, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310339, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120799, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7687202, "relative_activity": 1.488026, "balance": 0.639912, "dry_up": 0.819235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078583, "annualized_volatility": 0.288, "from_high_reference": -0.207224, "from_low_reference": 0.16318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.095, "fair_value_reference": 40.971836, "structural_low": 35.849998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.004159, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012785, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.347767, "worst_return": -0.093794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055538, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.001232, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.32341, "worst_return": -0.077268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004808, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.164732, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.113368, "worst_return": -0.14157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 37.349998, "volume": 3954895, "typical_volume": 5059981.5, "trend": 41.478333, "fair_value": 40.622106, "relative_strength": -37.976171, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.842493, "energy": 32.980205, "activity_lines": [ 39.203332, 40.097272, 39.964285, 40.615053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.5, "volume": 3434500, "typical_volume": 4992377.6, "trend": 41.388333, "fair_value": 40.71916, "relative_strength": -36.444519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.044121, "energy": 45.204653, "activity_lines": [ 38.753333, 39.773636, 39.812619, 40.422903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.099998, "volume": 3298671, "typical_volume": 4919168.2, "trend": 41.203333, "fair_value": 40.803891, "relative_strength": -35.298731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.962562, "energy": 50.710138, "activity_lines": [ 38.389999, 39.369999, 39.649047, 40.210752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.450001, "volume": 2508420, "typical_volume": 4904491.3, "trend": 41.071666, "fair_value": 40.875312, "relative_strength": -35.245637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.150814, "energy": 49.185627, "activity_lines": [ 38.243333, 39.051818, 39.534761, 40.033118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.700001, "volume": 7687202, "typical_volume": 5166038.95, "trend": 41.095, "fair_value": 40.971836, "relative_strength": -31.033923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.586373, "energy": 13.170761, "activity_lines": [ 39.396667, 39.392727, 39.74119, 40.073656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }