{ "ticker": { "uuid": "758996bd-8dd7-4b48-8003-13a939e8f9a1", "symbol": "FTAI", "name": "FTAI Aviation Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.464, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.507, "architecture_energy": 60.768, "architecture_maturity": 16.862, "architecture_confidence": 87.601, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.77, "rotation_up": 10.26, "upward_expansion": 13.31, "deceleration": 37.5, "rotation_down": 69.19, "downward_expansion": 88.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 213.027333, 225.226909, 235.695796, 240.951741 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 216.24, "trend_reference": 250.212751, "distance_from_trend": -0.135775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.212775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.623268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.290784, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204012, "excess_performance": -0.391466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.623268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753156, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8059315, "relative_activity": 1.242914, "balance": 0.753156, "dry_up": 1.386343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165469, "annualized_volatility": 0.570586, "from_high_reference": -0.32925, "from_low_reference": 0.613803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 250.212751, "fair_value_reference": 133.212775, "structural_low": 179.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.049076, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.046562, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.271828, "worst_return": -0.241973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.384048, "worst_return": -0.12309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.325162, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.230279, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.676045, "worst_return": -0.112111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -11.373719, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.84506, "energy": 45.136989, "activity_lines": [ 232.476667, 240.94, 244.265368, 248.313672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 215.98, "volume": 7549902, "typical_volume": 6330096.75, "trend": 251.287913, "fair_value": 130.930193, "relative_strength": -6.820515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.87908, "energy": 52.626971, "activity_lines": [ 223.199333, 235.745273, 241.554247, 246.126915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 206.0, "volume": 14115981, "typical_volume": 6618333.05, "trend": 251.167282, "fair_value": 132.043148, "relative_strength": -11.87448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.508518, "energy": 61.969417, "activity_lines": [ 214.604, 229.135818, 238.099626, 243.205114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.24, "volume": 8059315, "typical_volume": 6484209.25, "trend": 250.212751, "fair_value": 133.212775, "relative_strength": -12.290784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.507042, "energy": 60.768436, "activity_lines": [ 213.027333, 225.226909, 235.695796, 240.951741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }