{ "ticker": { "uuid": "758a1202-59af-4ee3-b7c1-a85d9d3edb5a", "symbol": "LS", "name": "LEMON SISTEMI", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.29, "architecture_energy": 30.104, "architecture_maturity": 13.342, "architecture_confidence": 63.207, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.52, "rotation_up": 15.08, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 57.18, "rotation_down": 60.84, "downward_expansion": 44.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.481636, 1.516619, 1.497968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.43, "trend_reference": 1.492333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.905285, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.246161, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062295, "excess_performance": -0.233187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068152, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103000, "relative_activity": 0.6292, "balance": 1.068152, "dry_up": 0.300855, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103819, "annualized_volatility": 0.402439, "from_high_reference": -0.386266, "from_low_reference": 0.243478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.492333, "fair_value_reference": 1.905285, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.029574, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.006211, "worst_return": -0.065359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030457, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065359, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-29", "close": 2.164, "volume": 111000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-05", "close": 3.0, "volume": 460000, 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21.466822, "activity_lines": [ 1.629333, 1.618545, 1.531381, 1.520817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.53, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 154950.0, "trend": 1.5305, "fair_value": 1.922682, "relative_strength": -24.595123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.251732, "energy": 9.874863, "activity_lines": [ 1.589333, 1.608545, 1.535738, 1.520387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.53, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 155450.0, "trend": 1.524833, "fair_value": 1.919729, "relative_strength": -23.397563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.932069, "energy": 9.811771, "activity_lines": [ 1.560667, 1.597818, 1.539976, 1.520355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.43, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 156500.0, "trend": 1.516, "fair_value": 1.916075, "relative_strength": -26.480491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.204766, "energy": 17.189085, "activity_lines": [ 1.508, 1.566364, 1.534524, 1.514237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 58000, "typical_volume": 158200.0, "trend": 1.507333, "fair_value": 1.912252, "relative_strength": -26.964812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.106921, "energy": 24.067077, "activity_lines": [ 1.462667, 1.529455, 1.526524, 1.506753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 158700.0, "trend": 1.498833, "fair_value": 1.908779, "relative_strength": -24.491194, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.795341, "energy": 26.078728, "activity_lines": [ 1.445333, 1.504909, 1.522143, 1.502409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.43, "volume": 103000, "typical_volume": 163700.0, "trend": 1.492333, "fair_value": 1.905285, "relative_strength": -26.246161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.290375, "energy": 30.104409, "activity_lines": [ 1.433333, 1.481636, 1.516619, 1.497968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }