{ "ticker": { "uuid": "758b1de9-c8f4-4185-87d4-6b994730a8a7", "symbol": "CMICABLES", "name": "CMI Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.845, "architecture_energy": 66.082, "architecture_maturity": 75.702, "architecture_confidence": 94.11, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.76, "rotation_up": 27.43, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 58.6, "rotation_down": 57.76, "downward_expansion": 84.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.863333, 2.916727, 3.02081, 3.223634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 3.633333, "distance_from_trend": -0.23211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.674423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.403135, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.013325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.443114, "excess_performance": -0.399405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.403135, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012934, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.443114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10575, "relative_activity": 0.939658, "balance": 0.81119, "dry_up": 0.73391, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061208, "annualized_volatility": 0.232642, "from_high_reference": -0.536545, "from_low_reference": 0.033333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.633333, "fair_value_reference": 4.674423, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.030862, "positive_rate": 0.413043, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.050665, "regime_survival": 0.847826, "best_return": 0.317872, "worst_return": -0.246711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.070707, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.125805, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.14876, "worst_return": -0.471111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.226224, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.26388, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.319648, "worst_return": -0.48172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.240876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", 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3.028, 3.090545, 3.219238, 3.552538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.9, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 10908.4, "trend": 3.985667, "fair_value": 4.791346, "relative_strength": -22.43205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.358073, "energy": 67.747412, "activity_lines": [ 2.975333, 3.05, 3.167238, 3.478086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.9, "volume": 8343, "typical_volume": 11217.45, "trend": 3.909333, "fair_value": 4.758654, "relative_strength": -22.755549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.980904, "energy": 66.593758, "activity_lines": [ 2.944, 3.014727, 3.123, 3.408043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 7736, "typical_volume": 11514.35, "trend": 3.827333, "fair_value": 4.729038, "relative_strength": -18.684276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.013526, "energy": 61.450308, "activity_lines": [ 2.95, 2.996545, 3.093667, 3.348086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.84, "volume": 6384, "typical_volume": 11673.8, "trend": 3.731667, "fair_value": 4.700769, "relative_strength": -24.294044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.434997, "energy": 66.33183, "activity_lines": [ 2.911333, 2.956727, 3.056857, 3.284387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 10575, "typical_volume": 11254.1, "trend": 3.633333, "fair_value": 4.674423, "relative_strength": -26.013325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.845477, "energy": 66.081977, "activity_lines": [ 2.863333, 2.916727, 3.02081, 3.223634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }