{ "ticker": { "uuid": "758c4654-ec82-41e9-825e-cd119a76ebdf", "symbol": "QEC", "name": "Questerre Energy Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.546, "architecture_energy": 18.762, "architecture_maturity": 53.829, "architecture_confidence": 84.878, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.72, "rotation_up": 30.08, "upward_expansion": 20.09, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 30.55, "downward_expansion": 58.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.257273, 0.266619, 0.271248 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.274338, "distance_from_trend": -0.052263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.25455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.131225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04, "excess_performance": -0.080421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164983, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126600, "relative_activity": 0.453146, "balance": 0.189238, "dry_up": 0.423617, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106509, "annualized_volatility": 0.551784, "from_high_reference": -0.359905, "from_low_reference": 0.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.274338, "fair_value_reference": 0.25455, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.057189, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": 0.059137, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.812497, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047618, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.074003, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.799997, "worst_return": -0.058822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049999, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.010257, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.882355, "worst_return": -0.130432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.242, 0.251455, 0.26881, 0.272598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.28, "volume": 184100, "typical_volume": 287770.0, "trend": 0.277303, "fair_value": 0.253756, "relative_strength": -14.805422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.242749, "energy": 33.923887, "activity_lines": [ 0.253333, 0.254909, 0.268952, 0.272729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 84600, "typical_volume": 281555.0, "trend": 0.275665, "fair_value": 0.254185, "relative_strength": -16.613701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.108536, "energy": 23.627294, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.256727, 0.26819, 0.272258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 126600, "typical_volume": 279380.0, "trend": 0.274338, "fair_value": 0.25455, "relative_strength": -21.131225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.54622, "energy": 18.761698, "activity_lines": [ 0.262, 0.257273, 0.266619, 0.271248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }