{ "ticker": { "uuid": "758eb84f-327e-4943-9cd2-260857b6d653", "symbol": "GAS", "name": "State Gas Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.122, "architecture_energy": 67.248, "architecture_maturity": 75.83, "architecture_confidence": 94.084, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 28.71, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.63, "rotation_down": 59.38, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.014382, 0.01719, 0.019842 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.02275, "distance_from_trend": -0.428571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.066879, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.80562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.834642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.48, "excess_performance": -0.543706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.80562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.498346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.48, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81931, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12137281, "relative_activity": 2.937427, "balance": 0.81931, "dry_up": 2.742645, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177515, "annualized_volatility": 0.657932, "from_high_reference": -0.74, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02275, "fair_value_reference": 0.066879, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.026724, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.633333, "worst_return": -0.616667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.13913, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.149057, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.484848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.238285, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.209743, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.243902, "worst_return": -0.556522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.747826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 6044778, "typical_volume": 3872754.2, "trend": 0.023683, "fair_value": 0.068847, "relative_strength": -43.884218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.089804, "energy": 85.919482, "activity_lines": [ 0.014, 0.0152, 0.018657, 0.021063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.015, "volume": 5291989, "typical_volume": 3796443.8, "trend": 0.02325, "fair_value": 0.06779, "relative_strength": -40.805438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.918456, "energy": 65.057866, "activity_lines": [ 0.014333, 0.014909, 0.017981, 0.020503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 12137281, "typical_volume": 4131942.85, "trend": 0.02275, "fair_value": 0.066879, "relative_strength": -49.834642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.12156, "energy": 67.248185, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.014382, 0.01719, 0.019842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }