{ "ticker": { "uuid": "759422c0-7715-4bcf-a893-0938135ae1e2", "symbol": "EBO", "name": "EBOS Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.734, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.681, "architecture_energy": 23.858, "architecture_maturity": 13.698, "architecture_confidence": 48.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 46.69, "upward_expansion": 37.03, "deceleration": 38.52, "rotation_down": 14.3, "downward_expansion": 43.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.463334, 18.089455, 17.715286, 17.939755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.360001, "trend_reference": 18.577269, "distance_from_trend": -0.011695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.315485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351592, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.116186, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123868, "excess_performance": -0.187573, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 832986, "relative_activity": 1.956182, "balance": 0.722721, "dry_up": 1.188498, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049103, "annualized_volatility": 0.231275, "from_high_reference": -0.500872, "from_low_reference": 0.170918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.577269, "fair_value_reference": 28.315485, "structural_low": 15.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.019661, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.018094, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.120902, "worst_return": -0.068654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034806, "worst_return": -0.215766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011326, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031382, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110984, "worst_return": -0.346011, "sufficient": false }, 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18.25, "volume": 325099, "typical_volume": 556383.4, "trend": 18.876404, "fair_value": 28.473803, "relative_strength": -17.744385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.530027, "energy": 23.078697, "activity_lines": [ 18.19, 17.714727, 17.570857, 17.980815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.610001, "volume": 384621, "typical_volume": 533468.95, "trend": 18.730024, "fair_value": 28.391043, "relative_strength": -16.781761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.505549, "energy": 25.786892, "activity_lines": [ 18.43, 17.943455, 17.655714, 17.963628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.360001, "volume": 832986, "typical_volume": 425822.4, "trend": 18.577269, "fair_value": 28.315485, "relative_strength": -19.116186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.681471, "energy": 23.857632, "activity_lines": [ 18.463334, 18.089455, 17.715286, 17.939755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }