{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75a3199a-ab34-4e28-8d9d-6cdd439d6368", "symbol": "VGK", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.058, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.358, "architecture_energy": 84.068, "architecture_maturity": 17.915, "architecture_confidence": 79.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 78.32, "upward_expansion": 94.36, "deceleration": 42.2, "rotation_down": 11.5, "downward_expansion": 18.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1566.118018, 1553.671143, 1535.138838, 1523.549451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1588.040039, "trend_reference": 1513.953235, "distance_from_trend": 0.048936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1328.713667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.690193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048893, "excess_performance": 0.10356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036902, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048893, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.499086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102356, "relative_activity": 5.482026, "balance": 4.499086, "dry_up": 1.689072, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015482, "annualized_volatility": 0.131781, "from_high_reference": -0.002606, "from_low_reference": 0.1177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1513.953235, "fair_value_reference": 1328.713667, "structural_low": 1420.810059, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.001422, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.104626, "worst_return": -0.946736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017818, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000327, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123284, "worst_return": -0.079332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.068372, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15432, "worst_return": -0.068924, 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14544.75, "trend": 1509.868368, "fair_value": 1321.831539, "relative_strength": 0.868859, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.290961, "energy": 65.673378, "activity_lines": [ 1544.292676, 1537.110773, 1521.816135, 1514.775283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1570.01001, "volume": 1213, "typical_volume": 13725.15, "trend": 1512.182084, "fair_value": 1325.19893, "relative_strength": 2.432745, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.952514, "energy": 74.209471, "activity_lines": [ 1553.634009, 1544.228447, 1527.861739, 1518.655389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1588.040039, "volume": 102356, "typical_volume": 18671.2, "trend": 1513.953235, "fair_value": 1328.713667, "relative_strength": 3.690193, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.358178, "energy": 84.068009, "activity_lines": [ 1566.118018, 1553.671143, 1535.138838, 1523.549451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }