{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75a882b5-a02d-4dfb-a73c-187147bca144", "symbol": "AEONTS", "name": "AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.108, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.575, "architecture_energy": 58.427, "architecture_maturity": 36.324, "architecture_confidence": 57.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.17, "rotation_up": 56.69, "upward_expansion": 81.5, "deceleration": 70.18, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 10.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.366667, 104.254545, 100.249471, 97.629721 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 104.5, "trend_reference": 95.306937, "distance_from_trend": 0.096457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.930801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.417888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12989, "excess_performance": -0.062435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123947, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12989, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068766, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2075600, "relative_activity": 1.024426, "balance": 1.068766, "dry_up": 1.29471, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038462, "annualized_volatility": 0.214012, "from_high_reference": -0.099348, "from_low_reference": 0.247451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.306937, "fair_value_reference": 112.930801, "structural_low": 83.770853, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.04127, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.0527, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.096774, "worst_return": -0.15894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.135155, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026882, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.117873, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.133326, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.025032, "worst_return": -0.241663, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 106.083333, 102.772727, 98.462361, 96.37017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.0, "volume": 1047700, "typical_volume": 1994620.0, "trend": 95.003345, "fair_value": 113.151921, "relative_strength": -8.933177, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.242883, "energy": 83.484576, "activity_lines": [ 106.033333, 103.668182, 99.4222, 97.017033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.5, "volume": 2075600, "typical_volume": 2026110.0, "trend": 95.306937, "fair_value": 112.930801, "relative_strength": -8.417888, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.574539, "energy": 58.427262, "activity_lines": [ 105.366667, 104.254545, 100.249471, 97.629721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }