{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75a99c7e-a850-4246-893d-719b14345936", "symbol": "SCHQ", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR LONG TERM U S TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.672, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.906, "architecture_energy": 72.572, "architecture_maturity": 6.257, "architecture_confidence": 77.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.06, "rotation_up": 8.93, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 78.15, "downward_expansion": 94.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.126393, 30.4486, 30.635442, 30.784422 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 30.11, "trend_reference": 30.984096, "distance_from_trend": -0.028211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.417145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010098, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.785846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036131, "excess_performance": -0.161756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006505, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010098, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026958, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036131, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.93493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2192255, "relative_activity": 0.722382, "balance": 1.93493, "dry_up": 0.808771, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018108, "annualized_volatility": 0.092735, "from_high_reference": -0.06917, "from_low_reference": 0.013674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.984096, "fair_value_reference": 30.417145, "structural_low": 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"typical_volume": 3799498.8, "trend": 31.114589, "fair_value": 30.429852, "relative_strength": -11.652256, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.258093, "energy": 21.022851, "activity_lines": [ 30.952644, 30.905918, 30.918004, 31.02103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.57024, "volume": 3623745, "typical_volume": 3731658.25, "trend": 31.09784, "fair_value": 30.423542, "relative_strength": -9.930415, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.729889, "energy": 26.693695, "activity_lines": [ 30.798631, 30.857739, 30.875385, 30.985911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.137079, "volume": 1824225, "typical_volume": 3514131.55, "trend": 31.062733, "fair_value": 30.417979, "relative_strength": -10.426237, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.474792, "energy": 58.549417, "activity_lines": [ 30.525665, 30.738281, 30.79985, 30.923926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.813452, "volume": 2177473, "typical_volume": 3281445.5, "trend": 31.023043, "fair_value": 30.415566, "relative_strength": -11.985466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.12506, "energy": 75.399836, "activity_lines": [ 30.220392, 30.560551, 30.700687, 30.843328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.11, "volume": 2192255, "typical_volume": 3034758.0, "trend": 30.984096, "fair_value": 30.417145, "relative_strength": -13.785846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.905508, "energy": 72.572265, "activity_lines": [ 30.126393, 30.4486, 30.635442, 30.784422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }