{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75ae497c-6a12-442d-a849-327aa4b1a3d4", "symbol": "AM5", "name": "Antares Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.353, "architecture_energy": 31.946, "architecture_maturity": 61.458, "architecture_confidence": 84.971, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.38, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 3.34, "deceleration": 58.24, "rotation_down": 48.46, "downward_expansion": 76.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.0066, 0.006833, 0.007146 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.0078, "distance_from_trend": -0.102564, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.675392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.475607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.363706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.675392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149357, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.958606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12754838, "relative_activity": 4.536551, "balance": 0.958606, "dry_up": 1.73581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142857, "annualized_volatility": 0.686643, "from_high_reference": -0.533333, "from_low_reference": 0.272727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0078, "fair_value_reference": 0.021564, "structural_low": 0.0055, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.387097, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": -0.017518, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.642857, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.1625, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.182565, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.475286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.417928, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.351942, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.580229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.621212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 670114, "typical_volume": 2740975.5, "trend": 0.007967, "fair_value": 0.02227, "relative_strength": -13.820212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.206734, "energy": 42.383391, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.006727, 0.006933, 0.007331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1907942, "typical_volume": 2459880.05, "trend": 0.0079, "fair_value": 0.021923, "relative_strength": -27.777966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.372929, "energy": 53.502019, "activity_lines": [ 0.006333, 0.006564, 0.006829, 0.007204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 12754838, "typical_volume": 2811571.5, "trend": 0.0078, "fair_value": 0.021564, "relative_strength": -18.475607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.352557, "energy": 31.946167, "activity_lines": [ 0.006533, 0.0066, 0.006833, 0.007146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }