{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75bc99ae-07fa-4c84-9f28-f23127648668", "symbol": "UIFS", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Financials Sector UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.179, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.175, "architecture_energy": 86.008, "architecture_maturity": 15.267, "architecture_confidence": 75.115, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.34, "rotation_up": 81.48, "upward_expansion": 97.69, "deceleration": 40.63, "rotation_down": 11.9, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1251.566667, 1235.854545, 1199.340476, 1176.777957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1262.0, "trend_reference": 1156.908333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1046.828237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205546, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.755957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081405, "excess_performance": 0.03017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009071, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.406932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 565480, "relative_activity": 1.321036, "balance": 5.406932, "dry_up": 0.963851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021901, "annualized_volatility": 0.132496, "from_high_reference": -0.189118, "from_low_reference": 0.217559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1156.908333, "fair_value_reference": 1046.828237, "structural_low": 1036.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005072, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.001334, "regime_survival": 0.71875, "best_return": 0.122786, "worst_return": -0.077741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013626, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.028985, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.156675, "worst_return": -0.148714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04255, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004837, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.200728, "worst_return": -0.148839, "sufficient": true }, { 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reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.857335, "energy": 83.165295, "activity_lines": [ 1202.816667, 1177.972727, 1152.090476, 1146.537097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1226.0, "volume": 333194, "typical_volume": 415580.9, "trend": 1150.841667, "fair_value": 1034.800192, "relative_strength": -0.498274, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.880053, "energy": 91.101702, "activity_lines": [ 1214.433333, 1189.895455, 1160.692857, 1151.43871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1243.0, "volume": 336548, "typical_volume": 414449.95, "trend": 1152.241667, "fair_value": 1037.75532, "relative_strength": 0.062681, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.23333, "energy": 93.031932, "activity_lines": [ 1226.95, 1203.245455, 1170.47619, 1157.384409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1249.5, "volume": 321183, "typical_volume": 419853.2, "trend": 1153.725, "fair_value": 1040.760929, "relative_strength": -0.512601, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.126273, "energy": 92.485131, "activity_lines": [ 1237.15, 1215.368182, 1180.307143, 1163.65914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1250.75, "volume": 427125, "typical_volume": 430232.65, "trend": 1155.683333, "fair_value": 1043.744102, "relative_strength": -1.467027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.319782, "energy": 88.111471, "activity_lines": [ 1244.05, 1225.6, 1189.67381, 1169.918817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1262.0, "volume": 565480, "typical_volume": 428058.05, "trend": 1156.908333, "fair_value": 1046.828237, "relative_strength": -0.755957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.175277, "energy": 86.007678, "activity_lines": [ 1251.566667, 1235.854545, 1199.340476, 1176.777957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }