{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75c19389-ba57-4dc0-9a2e-181086552af8", "symbol": "AD2", "name": "Air China Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.623, "architecture_energy": 62.078, "architecture_maturity": 65.683, "architecture_confidence": 92.919, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 25.6, "upward_expansion": 11.22, "deceleration": 55.34, "rotation_down": 57.19, "downward_expansion": 84.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.4657, 0.472542, 0.491857, 0.521132 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.468, "trend_reference": 0.57715, "distance_from_trend": -0.189119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.567512, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.506505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421937, "excess_performance": -0.596184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134049, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057594, "annualized_volatility": 0.335041, "from_high_reference": -0.434783, "from_low_reference": 0.068493 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.57715, "fair_value_reference": 0.567512, "structural_low": 0.438, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.029466, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.044196, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.334776, "worst_return": -0.110398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00587, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.097563, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.12987, "worst_return": -0.186161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069564, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010107, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.538967, "worst_return": -0.190939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086562, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049692, 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0.484985, 0.506526, 0.546219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4605, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 425.05, "trend": 0.597403, "fair_value": 0.570871, "relative_strength": -38.751832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.494292, "energy": 68.322467, "activity_lines": [ 0.4639, 0.478444, 0.500135, 0.536756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 425.05, "trend": 0.58777, "fair_value": 0.569249, "relative_strength": -36.264333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.851907, "energy": 62.984615, "activity_lines": [ 0.4648, 0.475747, 0.496028, 0.528859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.468, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 425.05, "trend": 0.57715, "fair_value": 0.567512, "relative_strength": -38.506505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.622754, "energy": 62.077651, "activity_lines": [ 0.4657, 0.472542, 0.491857, 0.521132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }