{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75cd3948-c7ed-4487-b7f9-32581ad65054", "symbol": "STRD-B", "name": "Suntrade Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.944, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.458, "architecture_energy": 8.215, "architecture_maturity": 26.165, "architecture_confidence": 58.191, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.71, "rotation_up": 21.14, "upward_expansion": 43.79, "deceleration": 81.96, "rotation_down": 29.29, "downward_expansion": 26.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.041953, 0.043584, 0.043889, 0.041828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.040287, "distance_from_trend": -0.007116, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.043365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.160389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029126, "excess_performance": -0.090621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007116, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.46147, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3787110, "relative_activity": 0.225552, "balance": 4.46147, "dry_up": 0.265001, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.355385, "annualized_volatility": 0.826962, "from_high_reference": -0.661017, "from_low_reference": 1.352941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.040287, "fair_value_reference": 0.043365, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039855, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.060255, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14876, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.184615, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.23476, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170799, "worst_return": -0.637681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.507692, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.554997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.393939, "worst_return": -0.771739, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.100775, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.316804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.255618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087649, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092971, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.035, "volume": 2735262, "typical_volume": 4239129.95, "trend": 0.0573, "fair_value": 0.153904, "relative_strength": -39.933218, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.379012, "energy": 12.861782, "activity_lines": [ 0.043447, 0.04556, 0.04373, 0.041695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0429, "volume": 2901757, "typical_volume": 16840838.15, "trend": 0.040407, "fair_value": 0.043339, "relative_strength": -28.294215, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.843568, "energy": 12.188503, "activity_lines": [ 0.04322, 0.044744, 0.043969, 0.041854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 3787110, "typical_volume": 16790429.85, "trend": 0.040287, "fair_value": 0.043365, "relative_strength": -33.160389, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.458315, "energy": 8.215445, "activity_lines": [ 0.041953, 0.043584, 0.043889, 0.041828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }