{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75ce21d3-b0a6-44c6-ad00-5dff88257a0e", "symbol": "SEAFCO", "name": "Seafco Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.688, "architecture_energy": 27.836, "architecture_maturity": 68.05, "architecture_confidence": 93.221, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.5, "rotation_up": 23.32, "upward_expansion": 56.14, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 22.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.849333, 2.895273, 2.825978, 2.703855 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 2.515432, "distance_from_trend": 0.113129, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.154344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.600333, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.456028, "excess_performance": 0.263703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113129, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101546, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066003, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.456028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.26388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3919600, "relative_activity": 1.326623, "balance": 2.26388, "dry_up": 1.286719, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052198, "annualized_volatility": 0.33426, "from_high_reference": -0.096774, "from_low_reference": 0.51607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.515432, "fair_value_reference": 2.154344, "structural_low": 1.92304, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017808, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.010101, "worst_return": -0.043956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.043956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.090061, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328473, "worst_return": -0.148352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.258242, 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"2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.50093, "energy": 64.726153, "activity_lines": [ 2.965333, 2.925818, 2.743137, 2.595324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.94, "volume": 4221400, "typical_volume": 3226665.0, "trend": 2.424403, "fair_value": 2.149245, "relative_strength": 10.992818, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.316184, "energy": 60.107905, "activity_lines": [ 2.953333, 2.940727, 2.775068, 2.630836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.9, "volume": 2838400, "typical_volume": 2869750.0, "trend": 2.458237, "fair_value": 2.150881, "relative_strength": 8.913119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.998216, "energy": 49.949547, "activity_lines": [ 2.932, 2.941455, 2.801067, 2.66152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8, "volume": 4227400, "typical_volume": 2909250.0, "trend": 2.485565, "fair_value": 2.152402, "relative_strength": 6.143209, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.025388, "energy": 36.891543, "activity_lines": [ 2.885333, 2.918182, 2.814704, 2.683569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 3919600, "typical_volume": 2954570.0, "trend": 2.515432, "fair_value": 2.154344, "relative_strength": 6.600333, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.687565, "energy": 27.835888, "activity_lines": [ 2.849333, 2.895273, 2.825978, 2.703855 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }