{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75d03f52-6016-4248-953b-c512eabbadda", "symbol": "1324", "name": "Globe Industries Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.566, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.199, "architecture_energy": 57.235, "architecture_maturity": 27.004, "architecture_confidence": 90.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.52, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 12.35, "deceleration": 38.62, "rotation_down": 64.2, "downward_expansion": 88.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.138, 10.250364, 10.36081, 10.468538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.2, "trend_reference": 10.598, "distance_from_trend": -0.037554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.55498, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.187573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.826014, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028571, "excess_performance": -0.469943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.187573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038386, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.428754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138532, "relative_activity": 0.180497, "balance": 1.428754, "dry_up": 0.280441, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038084, "annualized_volatility": 0.224322, "from_high_reference": -0.230189, "from_low_reference": 0.033435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.598, "fair_value_reference": 12.55498, "structural_low": 9.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004739, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.004234, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.08209, "worst_return": -0.088435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008116, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.065881, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.017857, "worst_return": -0.089431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014218, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.196453, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.009596, "worst_return": -0.145038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 10.2, "volume": 384796, "typical_volume": 855239.1, "trend": 10.673333, "fair_value": 12.579884, "relative_strength": -31.647933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.914576, "energy": 31.322285, "activity_lines": [ 10.416667, 10.439091, 10.528095, 10.600108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.35, "volume": 296772, "typical_volume": 840521.45, "trend": 10.668333, "fair_value": 12.574651, "relative_strength": -31.292989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.737764, "energy": 29.312735, "activity_lines": [ 10.39, 10.426364, 10.502381, 10.579247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.99, "volume": 293307, "typical_volume": 823375.35, "trend": 10.651333, "fair_value": 12.567416, "relative_strength": -31.94586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.389373, "energy": 57.608014, "activity_lines": [ 10.246667, 10.347273, 10.444524, 10.535484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.05, "volume": 132344, "typical_volume": 804283.3, "trend": 10.636333, "fair_value": 12.560564, "relative_strength": -32.316543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.784226, "energy": 63.445125, "activity_lines": [ 10.140667, 10.282909, 10.394333, 10.496688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.2, "volume": 138532, "typical_volume": 767501.45, "trend": 10.598, "fair_value": 12.55498, "relative_strength": -32.826014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.198843, "energy": 57.23509, "activity_lines": [ 10.138, 10.250364, 10.36081, 10.468538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }