{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75d12024-819f-4abd-9d4a-cf88b3b08429", "symbol": "CNYE", "name": "iShares MSCI China A UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.329, "architecture_energy": 32.353, "architecture_maturity": 8.141, "architecture_confidence": 63.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.52, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 60.29, "rotation_down": 62.67, "downward_expansion": 41.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.281067, 5.355473, 5.409295, 5.395465 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.394, "trend_reference": 5.384533, "distance_from_trend": 0.001758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.486085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.610415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.008036, "excess_performance": -0.162856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001758, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011288, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008036, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282359, "relative_activity": 1.265972, "balance": 0.673835, "dry_up": 1.360149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033128, "annualized_volatility": 0.166274, "from_high_reference": -0.061913, "from_low_reference": 0.155527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.384533, "fair_value_reference": 4.486085, "structural_low": 4.99, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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40.731622, "activity_lines": [ 5.529333, 5.518145, 5.469219, 5.433815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.128, "volume": 426293, "typical_volume": 261689.95, "trend": 5.3902, "fair_value": 4.468072, "relative_strength": -14.540674, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.00623, "energy": 11.164783, "activity_lines": [ 5.395667, 5.446455, 5.442086, 5.416733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.251, "volume": 295401, "typical_volume": 236119.3, "trend": 5.390167, "fair_value": 4.473473, "relative_strength": -12.169513, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.376943, "energy": 28.973218, "activity_lines": [ 5.322867, 5.405636, 5.428086, 5.407753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.192, "volume": 209403, "typical_volume": 224680.15, "trend": 5.3863, "fair_value": 4.478512, "relative_strength": -13.562224, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.986895, "energy": 42.645141, "activity_lines": [ 5.254933, 5.359491, 5.408681, 5.394968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.394, "volume": 282359, "typical_volume": 223037.35, "trend": 5.384533, "fair_value": 4.486085, "relative_strength": -12.610415, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.329356, "energy": 32.352671, "activity_lines": [ 5.281067, 5.355473, 5.409295, 5.395465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }