{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75d6e734-9447-4809-9fe6-e1d805b4bbff", "symbol": "ALKLA", "name": "Klarsen", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.372, "architecture_energy": 29.205, "architecture_maturity": 96.951, "architecture_confidence": 73.395, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.74, "rotation_up": 44.38, "upward_expansion": 25.25, "deceleration": 41.26, "rotation_down": 18.84, "downward_expansion": 56.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.554667, 0.488618, 0.497167, 0.578249 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.596, "trend_reference": 0.700667, "distance_from_trend": -0.149382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.504532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.603864, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.932339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.472566, "excess_performance": -0.525878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.603864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082655, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.472566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.875183, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34318, "relative_activity": 0.438674, "balance": 1.875183, "dry_up": 0.887763, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146877, "annualized_volatility": 1.980215, "from_high_reference": -0.497046, "from_low_reference": 1.772093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.700667, "fair_value_reference": 1.504532, "structural_low": 0.215, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.012008, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.018142, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.708589, "worst_return": -0.315315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.087866, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.007821, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.854637, "worst_return": -0.259231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.194142, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.282178, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.649944, "worst_return": -0.385254, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.665432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087591, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.73, "volume": 150103, "typical_volume": 181308.55, "trend": 2.742367, "fair_value": 2.009917, "relative_strength": 53.006205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.56, "volume": 8278, "typical_volume": 67456.55, "trend": 0.7176, "fair_value": 1.539429, "relative_strength": -30.710927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.572958, "energy": 48.788778, "activity_lines": [ 0.44, 0.428218, 0.488976, 0.591213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.63, "volume": 235207, "typical_volume": 77404.8, "trend": 0.709333, "fair_value": 1.522955, "relative_strength": -22.668374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.484661, "energy": 23.829211, "activity_lines": [ 0.511333, 0.462327, 0.493962, 0.585561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.596, "volume": 34318, "typical_volume": 78231.15, "trend": 0.700667, "fair_value": 1.504532, "relative_strength": -27.932339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.372079, "energy": 29.205123, "activity_lines": [ 0.554667, 0.488618, 0.497167, 0.578249 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }