{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75eb0f4c-e47e-4463-b8f5-966af6483696", "symbol": "000951", "name": "Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.806, "architecture_energy": 19.351, "architecture_maturity": 5.876, "architecture_confidence": 60.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.2, "rotation_up": 49.73, "upward_expansion": 61.51, "deceleration": 55.72, "rotation_down": 16.42, "downward_expansion": 16.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.945333, 21.604293, 21.583135, 21.615195 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.57, "trend_reference": 21.152058, "distance_from_trend": 0.019759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.802829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.262251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139461, "excess_performance": 0.132061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072623, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115975, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793782, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59844723, "relative_activity": 0.961079, "balance": 0.793782, "dry_up": 0.904531, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090292, "annualized_volatility": 0.446528, "from_high_reference": -0.196648, "from_low_reference": 0.333543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.152058, "fair_value_reference": 16.802829, "structural_low": 18.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009694, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001614, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.236495, "worst_return": -0.187685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019505, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.054847, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.288506, "worst_return": -0.271758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019529, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022871, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.475662, "worst_return": -0.208588, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.095768, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.220663, "volume": 57470997, "typical_volume": 64267607.85, "trend": 14.642825, "fair_value": 16.121136, "relative_strength": 25.391745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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21.657367, 21.268978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.309999, "volume": 50637521, "typical_volume": 70160652.8, "trend": 20.500392, "fair_value": 16.654065, "relative_strength": 0.41388, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.882897, "energy": 12.099425, "activity_lines": [ 21.125615, 21.111608, 21.608454, 21.329619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.440001, "volume": 51878284, "typical_volume": 69650342.5, "trend": 20.613392, "fair_value": 16.686105, "relative_strength": 5.97148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.550179, "energy": 8.473531, "activity_lines": [ 20.919055, 20.981072, 21.473303, 21.325723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.1, "volume": 53753138, "typical_volume": 67567771.25, "trend": 20.783392, "fair_value": 16.724087, "relative_strength": 14.082784, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.17652, "energy": 18.996122, "activity_lines": [ 21.319333, 21.176331, 21.497294, 21.421633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.209999, "volume": 59818164, "typical_volume": 63394388.05, "trend": 20.996392, "fair_value": 16.76754, "relative_strength": 21.470387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.800226, "energy": 26.027598, "activity_lines": [ 22.049333, 21.565435, 21.620191, 21.578188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.57, "volume": 59844723, "typical_volume": 62268280.6, "trend": 21.152058, "fair_value": 16.802829, "relative_strength": 7.262251, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.805569, "energy": 19.350543, "activity_lines": [ 21.945333, 21.604293, 21.583135, 21.615195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }