{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75eb837a-4ca1-47ad-8235-ec1116a78ea2", "symbol": "RING", "name": "ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL GOLD MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.982, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.968, "architecture_energy": 22.241, "architecture_maturity": 42.875, "architecture_confidence": 55.979, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.47, "rotation_up": 27.16, "upward_expansion": 17.07, "deceleration": 62.7, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 64.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.358667, 67.381104, 70.233292, 73.14389 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 78.02, "trend_reference": 77.143745, "distance_from_trend": 0.011359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.718344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.784606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.833203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054399, "excess_performance": -0.241852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012392, "read": "Falling" 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59.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014807, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.00507, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.147307, "worst_return": -0.11865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023961, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.302316, "worst_return": -0.104771, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.104197, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.218075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165871, "worst_return": -0.029391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -20.288413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.715265, "energy": 64.642797, "activity_lines": [ 66.856983, 69.06249, 73.136847, 75.96766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.92, "volume": 2508274, "typical_volume": 2494649.95, "trend": 77.934766, "fair_value": 42.822222, "relative_strength": -22.070502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.221135, "energy": 71.674421, "activity_lines": [ 64.6, 67.145449, 71.643674, 74.841357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.49, "volume": 6425335, "typical_volume": 2672979.65, "trend": 77.482425, "fair_value": 43.089895, "relative_strength": -16.372173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.480398, "energy": 61.487269, "activity_lines": [ 64.076, 66.254309, 70.670464, 73.973953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.77, "volume": 5596543, "typical_volume": 2849288.25, "trend": 77.173549, "fair_value": 43.358416, "relative_strength": -17.941161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.287856, "energy": 55.589698, "activity_lines": [ 63.769333, 65.432056, 69.733868, 73.08928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.02, "volume": 2975885, "typical_volume": 2841738.85, "trend": 77.143745, "fair_value": 43.718344, "relative_strength": -4.833203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.967883, "energy": 22.240646, "activity_lines": [ 68.358667, 67.381104, 70.233292, 73.14389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }