{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75ec220f-7633-48df-8f8f-08a4d401133c", "symbol": "300352", "name": "Beijing VRV Software Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.261, "architecture_energy": 88.047, "architecture_maturity": 67.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.743, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 59.11, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.372667, 2.490909, 3.162048, 3.997785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 5.001333, "distance_from_trend": -0.500133, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.078654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.507744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.139589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.626308, "excess_performance": -0.633708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.500133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.507744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.561396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.626308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142206181, "relative_activity": 0.747755, "balance": 0.722266, "dry_up": 0.708518, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144, "annualized_volatility": 1.046996, "from_high_reference": -0.698068, "from_low_reference": 0.231527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.001333, "fair_value_reference": 5.078654, "structural_low": 2.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.024631, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.009078, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.44186, "worst_return": -0.211111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026125, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.030624, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.988338, "worst_return": -0.227513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.107493, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025189, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.6743, "worst_return": -0.255732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.705333, 2.858545, 4.04381, 4.764022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.4, "volume": 117136179, "typical_volume": 253676612.4, "trend": 5.370667, "fair_value": 5.127308, "relative_strength": -58.046227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.208694, "energy": 70.964983, "activity_lines": [ 2.598667, 2.743273, 3.795238, 4.564882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.13, "volume": 141966299, "typical_volume": 245623471.15, "trend": 5.247, "fair_value": 5.11, "relative_strength": -62.336712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.45384, "energy": 76.544422, "activity_lines": [ 2.416667, 2.604727, 3.543952, 4.355806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.32, "volume": 137667571, "typical_volume": 203252254.85, "trend": 5.122333, "fair_value": 5.093269, "relative_strength": -57.76, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.792096, "energy": 78.99657, "activity_lines": [ 2.352, 2.521091, 3.333048, 4.166968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 142206181, "typical_volume": 190177380.25, "trend": 5.001333, "fair_value": 5.078654, "relative_strength": -56.139589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.260751, "energy": 88.047342, "activity_lines": [ 2.372667, 2.490909, 3.162048, 3.997785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }