{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75f0f206-d850-4908-a647-12d664028719", "symbol": "ETH", "name": "Eurotech S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.109, "architecture_energy": 25.12, "architecture_maturity": 58.741, "architecture_confidence": 87.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.68, "rotation_up": 28.09, "upward_expansion": 60.84, "deceleration": 90.71, "rotation_down": 26.44, "downward_expansion": 15.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.223855, 1.165176, 1.108152 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.19, "trend_reference": 1.043986, "distance_from_trend": 0.139862, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.275991, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.672245, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.337079, "excess_performance": 0.166187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294111, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006722, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.337079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.206988, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 861370, "relative_activity": 0.875016, "balance": 2.206988, "dry_up": 1.084419, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105947, "annualized_volatility": 0.568216, "from_high_reference": -0.184932, "from_low_reference": 0.435464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.043986, "fair_value_reference": 1.275991, "structural_low": 0.829, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045707, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015473, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.130587, "worst_return": -0.040338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05029, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104766, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074721, "worst_return": -0.090318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.034429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022346, "worst_return": -0.046512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.139316, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.139316, "worst_return": -0.139316, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040042, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021834, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005145, "active": false 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1.221709, 1.112105, 1.063254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.202, "volume": 1346672, "typical_volume": 1121867.75, "trend": 1.025653, "fair_value": 1.311587, "relative_strength": 5.41214, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.5665, "energy": 39.637871, "activity_lines": [ 1.2292, 1.229509, 1.126524, 1.075074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.242, "volume": 1009828, "typical_volume": 1022269.15, "trend": 1.034853, "fair_value": 1.299805, "relative_strength": 8.951439, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.514606, "energy": 34.140643, "activity_lines": [ 1.2248, 1.239273, 1.144124, 1.089032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.18, "volume": 1052159, "typical_volume": 1001290.45, "trend": 1.038786, "fair_value": 1.28785, "relative_strength": 2.793673, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.797604, "energy": 27.832062, "activity_lines": [ 1.2076, 1.232473, 1.154667, 1.098396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.19, "volume": 861370, "typical_volume": 984404.5, "trend": 1.043986, "fair_value": 1.275991, "relative_strength": 0.672245, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.10872, "energy": 25.120454, "activity_lines": [ 1.200667, 1.223855, 1.165176, 1.108152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }