{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75f13382-6a91-45f2-84df-cb20beddc0eb", "symbol": "KRITIKA", "name": "Kritika Wires Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.686, "architecture_energy": 20.566, "architecture_maturity": 18.957, "architecture_confidence": 75.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.35, "rotation_up": 21.58, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 47.14, "downward_expansion": 66.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.808667, 5.801636, 5.908238, 5.926645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.79, "trend_reference": 6.043, "distance_from_trend": -0.041867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.969273, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.472162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.226925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114679, "excess_performance": -0.07097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041867, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.472162, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049732, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015608, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1130789, "relative_activity": 1.366166, "balance": 0.419658, "dry_up": 1.101842, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073203, "annualized_volatility": 0.538438, "from_high_reference": -0.478378, "from_low_reference": 0.286667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.043, "fair_value_reference": 10.969273, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.043839, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.035711, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.496894, "worst_return": -0.234063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.108444, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.126149, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.02454, "worst_return": -0.355731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.135304, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.390476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266177, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.242491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 6.25, "volume": 1485183, "typical_volume": 852842.6, "trend": 6.088333, "fair_value": 10.968162, "relative_strength": -9.602874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.107989, "energy": 28.715371, "activity_lines": [ 5.793333, 5.817091, 5.920143, 5.945892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.79, "volume": 1130789, "typical_volume": 827709.95, "trend": 6.043, "fair_value": 10.969273, "relative_strength": -16.226925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.686361, "energy": 20.565927, "activity_lines": [ 5.808667, 5.801636, 5.908238, 5.926645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }