{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75f17f44-7e1a-4727-b164-3f9812c106ca", "symbol": "CNESG", "name": "UBS MSCI China Universal UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.425, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.578, "architecture_energy": 20.36, "architecture_maturity": 73.905, "architecture_confidence": 43.619, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.05, "rotation_up": 43.99, "upward_expansion": 27.51, "deceleration": 41.2, "rotation_down": 15.7, "downward_expansion": 50.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.700133, 10.498036, 10.554295, 10.631798 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.922, "trend_reference": 10.799863, "distance_from_trend": 0.011309, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.331576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.300622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048109, "excess_performance": -0.130992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011309, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678551, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6146, "relative_activity": 0.446247, "balance": 0.678551, "dry_up": 0.791787, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030207, "annualized_volatility": 0.167766, "from_high_reference": -0.095337, "from_low_reference": 0.125631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.799863, "fair_value_reference": 9.331576, "structural_low": 9.703, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004084, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.002099, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.162303, "worst_return": -0.208166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0205, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.048299, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.126725, "worst_return": -0.144268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140574, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.065918, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.078125, "worst_return": -0.145106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 10.856309, "fair_value": 9.292206, "relative_strength": -16.138854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.791007, "energy": 66.142442, "activity_lines": [ 10.203467, 10.305745, 10.507943, 10.647074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.484, "volume": 4908, "typical_volume": 15063.6, "trend": 10.831414, "fair_value": 9.301864, "relative_strength": -14.196116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.159814, "energy": 37.328306, "activity_lines": [ 10.311467, 10.316873, 10.497133, 10.623054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.864, "volume": 25274, "typical_volume": 13995.35, "trend": 10.819054, "fair_value": 9.314965, "relative_strength": -10.883912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.281923, "energy": 17.237014, "activity_lines": [ 10.530667, 10.404691, 10.523181, 10.625157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.922, "volume": 6146, "typical_volume": 13772.65, "trend": 10.799863, "fair_value": 9.331576, "relative_strength": -11.300622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.578184, "energy": 20.360026, "activity_lines": [ 10.700133, 10.498036, 10.554295, 10.631798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }