{ "ticker": { "uuid": "75ffba38-5275-402e-8104-ccf142d11cdb", "symbol": "SESR", "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg 0-3", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.854, "architecture_energy": 60.346, "architecture_maturity": 60.501, "architecture_confidence": 63.942, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 54.03, "upward_expansion": 83.49, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 10.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.316333, 33.308818, 33.258905, 33.211097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.355, "trend_reference": 33.162, "distance_from_trend": 0.00582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.982692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.66601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006943, "excess_performance": -0.163948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37839, "relative_activity": 2.270731, "balance": 1.115921, "dry_up": 1.117617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001695, "annualized_volatility": 0.010076, "from_high_reference": -0.000599, "from_low_reference": 0.018784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.162, "fair_value_reference": 31.982692, "structural_low": 32.845001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.002615, "positive_rate": 0.882353, "directional_follow_through": 0.882353, "median_excess_return": -0.010453, "regime_survival": 0.970588, "best_return": 0.008924, "worst_return": -0.007838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00816, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062871, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.017022, "worst_return": 0.000755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141635, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02823, "worst_return": 0.006834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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31.807468, "relative_strength": -13.508225, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.22068, "energy": 72.647046, "activity_lines": [ 33.222667, 33.187455, 33.132286, 33.110646 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 33.259998, "volume": 8272, "typical_volume": 23232.15, "trend": 33.085167, "fair_value": 31.829583, "relative_strength": -15.268723, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.359218, "energy": 75.879738, "activity_lines": [ 33.241333, 33.205546, 33.146334, 33.122602 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.314999, "volume": 1113, "typical_volume": 23003.75, "trend": 33.096667, "fair_value": 31.851987, "relative_strength": -12.116416, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.946424, "energy": 84.037161, "activity_lines": [ 33.269666, 33.230273, 33.164953, 33.13743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.34, "volume": 8241, "typical_volume": 15764.5, "trend": 33.109, "fair_value": 31.874679, "relative_strength": -14.205275, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.399052, "energy": 89.806538, "activity_lines": [ 33.297666, 33.256455, 33.185048, 33.153129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.32, "volume": 9290, "typical_volume": 15968.3, "trend": 33.121167, "fair_value": 31.896795, "relative_strength": -13.511795, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.74212, "energy": 87.417327, "activity_lines": [ 33.312, 33.274727, 33.202334, 33.166742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.294998, "volume": 15653, "typical_volume": 15355.45, "trend": 33.132167, "fair_value": 31.918494, "relative_strength": -11.967349, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.014305, "energy": 84.516363, "activity_lines": [ 33.310999, 33.284636, 33.216452, 33.177957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.279999, "volume": 10270, "typical_volume": 15594.55, "trend": 33.142167, "fair_value": 31.939615, "relative_strength": -11.495859, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.42386, "energy": 69.107734, "activity_lines": [ 33.302332, 33.289181, 33.228548, 33.187495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.305, "volume": 10733, "typical_volume": 15904.7, "trend": 33.152, "fair_value": 31.961154, "relative_strength": -11.635624, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.912464, "energy": 53.800208, "activity_lines": [ 33.300666, 33.295545, 33.242048, 33.198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.355, "volume": 37839, "typical_volume": 16663.8, "trend": 33.162, "fair_value": 31.982692, "relative_strength": -13.66601, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.853655, "energy": 60.345938, "activity_lines": [ 33.316333, 33.308818, 33.258905, 33.211097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }