{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76030d00-55b2-4353-8d3c-9d07a458877f", "symbol": "DJUN", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - JUNE", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.82, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.331, "architecture_energy": 55.789, "architecture_maturity": 44.794, "architecture_confidence": 68.053, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 60.7, "upward_expansion": 80.69, "deceleration": 62.56, "rotation_down": 21.54, "downward_expansion": 7.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.603727, 49.426442, 49.197339, 48.826736 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.215, "trend_reference": 48.381633, "distance_from_trend": 0.037894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.124751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.076369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053083, "excess_performance": -0.072542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.4e-05, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98114, "relative_activity": 0.541599, "balance": 0.946034, "dry_up": 0.669347, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011475, "annualized_volatility": 0.053347, "from_high_reference": -0.023149, "from_low_reference": 0.105692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.381633, "fair_value_reference": 43.124751, "structural_low": 46.19, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006089, "positive_rate": 0.763158, "directional_follow_through": 0.763158, "median_excess_return": -0.005109, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.037911, "worst_return": -0.045606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021104, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.013975, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.072874, "worst_return": -0.022483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053103, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.046394, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.108449, "worst_return": -0.076692, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.670101, "energy": 44.54354, "activity_lines": [ 49.2279, 49.195851, 48.968166, 48.625663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.4191, "volume": 110399, "typical_volume": 178213.55, "trend": 48.293293, "fair_value": 43.034462, "relative_strength": -4.518423, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.213804, "energy": 45.039825, "activity_lines": [ 49.302967, 49.24242, 49.050298, 48.702755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.215, "volume": 98114, "typical_volume": 181156.05, "trend": 48.381633, "fair_value": 43.124751, "relative_strength": -6.076369, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.330702, "energy": 55.789462, "activity_lines": [ 49.603727, 49.426442, 49.197339, 48.826736 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }