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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.327, "architecture_energy": 54.439, "architecture_maturity": 86.62, "architecture_confidence": 71.871, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 48.4, "upward_expansion": 80.58, "deceleration": 71.34, "rotation_down": 27.92, "downward_expansion": 9.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.808, 127.510129, 121.463439, 115.381326 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 120.84, "trend_reference": 108.190084, "distance_from_trend": 0.116923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.261143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.910617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.249608, "excess_performance": 0.123983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113244, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075551, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.069106, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.249608, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.98799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3692061, "relative_activity": 1.275897, "balance": 1.98799, "dry_up": 0.969802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058544, "annualized_volatility": 0.309387, "from_high_reference": -0.120908, "from_low_reference": 0.478931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.190084, "fair_value_reference": 96.261143, "structural_low": 88.449684, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.000929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00089, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.1388, "worst_return": -0.13011, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.041002, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040012, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.065339, "worst_return": -0.176297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014299, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103409, "worst_return": -0.218963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.044845, "energy": 68.916469, "activity_lines": [ 129.057866, 126.481996, 118.567069, 112.721519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.65, "volume": 2804367, "typical_volume": 2831925.8, "trend": 107.288096, "fair_value": 95.978575, "relative_strength": 22.640224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.212315, "energy": 67.914118, "activity_lines": [ 130.659333, 128.367203, 120.732239, 114.50701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.84, "volume": 3692061, "typical_volume": 2893699.15, "trend": 108.190084, "fair_value": 96.261143, "relative_strength": 6.910617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.327218, "energy": 54.438825, "activity_lines": [ 127.808, 127.510129, 121.463439, 115.381326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }