{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7607b30a-5821-407f-a0a9-13b00db84aa0", "symbol": "XDWC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.598, "architecture_energy": 34.039, "architecture_maturity": 19.07, "architecture_confidence": 69.118, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.23, "rotation_up": 48.76, "upward_expansion": 76.5, "deceleration": 58.95, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 5.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.388334, 59.125, 58.893405, 58.308301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 61.375, "trend_reference": 57.924833, "distance_from_trend": 0.059563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.274167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130833, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.979558, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082547, "excess_performance": -0.088345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059563, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130833, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082547, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.439454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15773, "relative_activity": 1.431638, "balance": 2.439454, "dry_up": 1.126871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030293, "annualized_volatility": 0.190618, "from_high_reference": -0.009681, "from_low_reference": 0.181424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.924833, "fair_value_reference": 54.274167, "structural_low": 51.950001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.00116, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.008308, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.108625, "worst_return": -0.140192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001606, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011005, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.191382, "worst_return": -0.244638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029222, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.164526, "worst_return": -0.108029, 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53.952468, "relative_strength": -11.734039, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.543547, "energy": 27.907703, "activity_lines": [ 59.158333, 59.070545, 58.384095, 58.044183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.220001, "volume": 19658, "typical_volume": 11138.4, "trend": 58.058, "fair_value": 54.036378, "relative_strength": -11.030442, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.815663, "energy": 43.04132, "activity_lines": [ 59.276333, 59.095909, 58.540143, 58.117032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.355, "volume": 6234, "typical_volume": 10803.15, "trend": 57.933333, "fair_value": 54.096891, "relative_strength": -14.839429, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.995777, "energy": 9.225799, "activity_lines": [ 58.352333, 58.602636, 58.412405, 58.007161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.165001, "volume": 7996, "typical_volume": 10652.75, "trend": 57.939, "fair_value": 54.175609, "relative_strength": -10.922905, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.349322, "energy": 16.89528, "activity_lines": [ 58.533667, 58.657909, 58.556191, 58.086624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.375, "volume": 15773, "typical_volume": 11017.45, "trend": 57.924833, "fair_value": 54.274167, "relative_strength": -9.979558, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.598334, "energy": 34.039328, "activity_lines": [ 59.388334, 59.125, 58.893405, 58.308301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }