{ "ticker": { "uuid": "760db728-4dc4-46d1-b6cc-3961fed32fd7", "symbol": "600712", "name": "Nanning Department Store Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.254, "architecture_energy": 35.172, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.91, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 16.25, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 41.28, "downward_expansion": 66.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.045333, 4.981818, 5.294571, 5.544989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 5.889, "distance_from_trend": -0.069452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.349744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.076004, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164634, "excess_performance": -0.12143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 216554299, "relative_activity": 5.093086, "balance": 1.106067, "dry_up": 2.259288, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097558, "annualized_volatility": 0.427002, "from_high_reference": -0.337364, "from_low_reference": 0.274419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.889, "fair_value_reference": 5.349744, "structural_low": 4.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.018883, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.005307, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.207283, "worst_return": -0.125767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.603399, "worst_return": -0.082687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071042, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.129195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.485564, "worst_return": 0.02584, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212314, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104452, "active": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.622549, "energy": 83.724153, "activity_lines": [ 4.81, 5.062364, 5.475857, 5.733204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.42, "volume": 39077494, "typical_volume": 30768916.7, "trend": 6.001333, "fair_value": 5.332372, "relative_strength": -29.205542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.097643, "energy": 67.576505, "activity_lines": [ 4.671333, 4.898, 5.349143, 5.625312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.21, "volume": 90414605, "typical_volume": 33649818.85, "trend": 5.933667, "fair_value": 5.341282, "relative_strength": -16.504913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.784688, "energy": 53.938074, "activity_lines": [ 4.834667, 4.908545, 5.306143, 5.574258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 216554299, "typical_volume": 42519268.8, "trend": 5.889, "fair_value": 5.349744, "relative_strength": -14.076004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.25387, "energy": 35.172489, "activity_lines": [ 5.045333, 4.981818, 5.294571, 5.544989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }