{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7613b8da-3304-4142-878f-5c09fef31b76", "symbol": "ABG", "name": "ABG Sundal Collier Holding ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.061, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.365, "architecture_energy": 12.367, "architecture_maturity": 34.193, "architecture_confidence": 67.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.01, "rotation_up": 24.49, "upward_expansion": 14.2, "deceleration": 38.74, "rotation_down": 33.36, "downward_expansion": 61.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.195333, 7.182909, 7.190695, 7.243448 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.35, "trend_reference": 7.321808, "distance_from_trend": 0.00385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.005677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223842, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.38347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024308, "excess_performance": -0.149302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00385, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223842, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.128307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2293593, "relative_activity": 2.65339, "balance": 2.128307, "dry_up": 1.695981, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032967, "annualized_volatility": 0.154963, "from_high_reference": -0.060316, "from_low_reference": 0.160786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.321808, "fair_value_reference": 6.005677, "structural_low": 6.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009628, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.027506, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.090062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035437, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.075091, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.235408, "worst_return": -0.183169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029967, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.144144, "worst_return": -0.212115, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -9.591187, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.975702, "energy": 34.144997, "activity_lines": [ 7.127333, 7.167636, 7.203798, 7.272059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.05, "volume": 839985, "typical_volume": 796813.1, "trend": 7.344913, "fair_value": 5.967024, "relative_strength": -11.645977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.572341, "energy": 35.219976, "activity_lines": [ 7.1, 7.146182, 7.183836, 7.251472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 1079276, "typical_volume": 784691.55, "trend": 7.329464, "fair_value": 5.985415, "relative_strength": -10.046271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.649359, "energy": 30.936068, "activity_lines": [ 7.127333, 7.152, 7.17984, 7.242123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.35, "volume": 2293593, "typical_volume": 864401.15, "trend": 7.321808, "fair_value": 6.005677, "relative_strength": -8.38347, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.365183, "energy": 12.366944, "activity_lines": [ 7.195333, 7.182909, 7.190695, 7.243448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }