{ "ticker": { "uuid": "761afff5-dd38-46e9-aeaa-d637af14120b", "symbol": "600819", "name": "Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.645, "architecture_energy": 60.654, "architecture_maturity": 58.068, "architecture_confidence": 86.413, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 10.34, "deceleration": 55.42, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 83.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.194667, 5.400998, 5.958898, 6.385833 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 6.988512, "distance_from_trend": -0.234458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.788203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.650379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359281, "excess_performance": -0.316078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113733, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.256504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36380320, "relative_activity": 0.866215, "balance": 0.57816, "dry_up": 1.167646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117413, "annualized_volatility": 0.365972, "from_high_reference": -0.469772, "from_low_reference": 0.143162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.988512, "fair_value_reference": 5.788203, "structural_low": 4.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.029483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.61945, "worst_return": -0.196843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.087746, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.226281, "worst_return": -0.313117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036993, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.04835, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.647954, "worst_return": -0.080462, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 7.180512, "fair_value": 5.781585, "relative_strength": -30.74958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.31679, "energy": 90.227244, "activity_lines": [ 5.165538, 5.613739, 6.18533, 6.617447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 50666990, "typical_volume": 41883594.05, "trend": 7.079512, "fair_value": 5.78464, "relative_strength": -24.315227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.961994, "energy": 74.826128, "activity_lines": [ 5.162953, 5.488369, 6.064352, 6.497414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 36380320, "typical_volume": 41999199.5, "trend": 6.988512, "fair_value": 5.788203, "relative_strength": -25.650379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.645003, "energy": 60.654218, "activity_lines": [ 5.194667, 5.400998, 5.958898, 6.385833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }