{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7630c01d-9bd9-4317-be6f-288dc1bde268", "symbol": "TCSA3", "name": "Tecnisa S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.011, "architecture_energy": 73.395, "architecture_maturity": 38.02, "architecture_confidence": 91.273, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 19.02, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 45.17, "rotation_down": 70.24, "downward_expansion": 90.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.712667, 0.766, 0.923048, 1.039355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 1.177667, "distance_from_trend": -0.397113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.887244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.247078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.567073, "excess_performance": -0.510025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.397113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101247, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221234, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.567073, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.065304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 302600, "relative_activity": 0.86514, "balance": 0.065304, "dry_up": 1.074706, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125677, "annualized_volatility": 0.537244, "from_high_reference": -0.632124, "from_low_reference": 0.092308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.177667, "fair_value_reference": 1.887244, "structural_low": 0.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.028848, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.026875, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.393443, "worst_return": -0.327103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00678, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.058473, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.283333, "worst_return": -0.363057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.141274, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.155835, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.367041, "worst_return": -0.442149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.249481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.331873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251613, "worst_return": -0.542373, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.47079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149351, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035398, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.336449, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.65, "volume": 602100, "typical_volume": 534560.0, "trend": 3.140667, "fair_value": 5.100641, "relative_strength": 11.268987, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 0.84, "volume": 32900, "typical_volume": 431270.0, "trend": 1.253, "fair_value": 1.983718, "relative_strength": -43.518579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.535494, "energy": 93.45208, "activity_lines": [ 0.912667, 1.005636, 1.134762, 1.205226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.72, "volume": 688100, "typical_volume": 461585.0, "trend": 1.238333, "fair_value": 1.966474, "relative_strength": -51.451677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.477657, "energy": 97.075327, "activity_lines": [ 0.832667, 0.940364, 1.086048, 1.170839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 623900, "typical_volume": 388150.0, "trend": 1.224333, "fair_value": 1.948013, "relative_strength": -50.593511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.908106, "energy": 95.221436, "activity_lines": [ 0.770667, 0.881273, 1.039143, 1.136108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.66, "volume": 371300, "typical_volume": 362945.0, "trend": 1.208667, "fair_value": 1.928205, "relative_strength": -52.503382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.610159, "energy": 94.810105, "activity_lines": [ 0.72, 0.825091, 0.992619, 1.099699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.76, "volume": 205800, "typical_volume": 349235.0, "trend": 1.196667, "fair_value": 1.907564, "relative_strength": -45.396093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.504814, "energy": 88.533185, "activity_lines": [ 0.721333, 0.796364, 0.95881, 1.070753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 302600, "typical_volume": 349770.0, "trend": 1.177667, "fair_value": 1.887244, "relative_strength": -46.247078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.011379, "energy": 73.394594, "activity_lines": [ 0.712667, 0.766, 0.923048, 1.039355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }