{ "ticker": { "uuid": "763c0f8a-0eb9-4bbc-ab14-cbf6be5c5d7f", "symbol": "688129", "name": "Donglai Coating Technology(Shanghai)Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.895, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.768, "architecture_energy": 65.472, "architecture_maturity": 16.533, "architecture_confidence": 66.351, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.36, "rotation_up": 16.49, "upward_expansion": 23.14, "deceleration": 43.13, "rotation_down": 69.65, "downward_expansion": 62.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.121676, 21.760202, 24.138501, 24.458494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.16, "trend_reference": 24.368247, "distance_from_trend": -0.131657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.564749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.560052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.06989, "excess_performance": -0.026686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.131657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.536286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4367069, "relative_activity": 0.725834, "balance": 1.125538, "dry_up": 1.013402, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149387, "annualized_volatility": 0.503892, "from_high_reference": -0.375443, "from_low_reference": 0.185434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.368247, "fair_value_reference": 18.564749, "structural_low": 17.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031567, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029791, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.119712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074102, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277056, "worst_return": -0.004167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.237963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.175421, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.257485, "worst_return": 0.042936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.558734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130939, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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24.378914, "fair_value": 18.416912, "relative_strength": -9.110172, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.803083, "energy": 16.67659, "activity_lines": [ 24.716245, 25.909468, 26.320547, 25.636256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.99, "volume": 7872526, "typical_volume": 6756526.8, "trend": 24.393247, "fair_value": 18.458056, "relative_strength": -12.505158, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.517512, "energy": 40.496807, "activity_lines": [ 23.051751, 24.606606, 25.758322, 25.3531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.360001, "volume": 6178283, "typical_volume": 6343192.1, "trend": 24.345914, "fair_value": 18.48594, "relative_strength": -20.020941, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.454483, "energy": 62.352841, "activity_lines": [ 21.164053, 23.181381, 25.058953, 24.963859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.690001, "volume": 5971165, "typical_volume": 6104126.0, "trend": 24.337247, "fair_value": 18.520477, "relative_strength": -13.977145, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.04891, "energy": 68.200353, "activity_lines": [ 20.199167, 22.225246, 24.516632, 24.663477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.16, "volume": 4367069, "typical_volume": 6016625.7, "trend": 24.368247, "fair_value": 18.564749, "relative_strength": -9.560052, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.767913, "energy": 65.471569, "activity_lines": [ 20.121676, 21.760202, 24.138501, 24.458494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }