{ "ticker": { "uuid": "763ed474-9d2e-4fe1-b0d0-d1e9d7a25990", "symbol": "TLK", "name": "Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT ADR Rep 100 B", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.013, "architecture_energy": 24.141, "architecture_maturity": 95.643, "architecture_confidence": 74.125, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.99, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 58.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.703333, 14.512453, 14.793003, 15.407619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.1, "trend_reference": 16.467448, "distance_from_trend": -0.083039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.846683, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.90026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202562, "excess_performance": -0.328187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.292513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4143643, "relative_activity": 0.925246, "balance": 1.292513, "dry_up": 0.910988, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061627, "annualized_volatility": 0.284712, "from_high_reference": -0.305146, "from_low_reference": 0.197033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.467448, "fair_value_reference": 16.846683, "structural_low": 12.614524, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.015836, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.01648, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.146466, "worst_return": -0.109649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.008782, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.004886, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.225404, "worst_return": -0.149883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038114, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.070515, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.33903, "worst_return": -0.08788, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.489186, "energy": 54.200826, "activity_lines": [ 14.23, 14.402447, 15.004532, 15.802897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.42, "volume": 4241437, "typical_volume": 4510101.85, "trend": 16.764933, "fair_value": 16.909035, "relative_strength": -23.79869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.808337, "energy": 50.110125, "activity_lines": [ 14.278, 14.369808, 14.891365, 15.640469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.66, "volume": 4086125, "typical_volume": 4443063.25, "trend": 16.604236, "fair_value": 16.87811, "relative_strength": -22.954646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.867715, "energy": 37.287643, "activity_lines": [ 14.436667, 14.397042, 14.817014, 15.504667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.1, "volume": 4143643, "typical_volume": 4478421.25, "trend": 16.467448, "fair_value": 16.846683, "relative_strength": -22.90026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.012699, "energy": 24.1407, "activity_lines": [ 14.703333, 14.512453, 14.793003, 15.407619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }