{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76412070-8f0a-4156-865b-bc2d06b263fe", "symbol": "IRE", "name": "Iress Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.797, "architecture_energy": 40.039, "architecture_maturity": 90.355, "architecture_confidence": 76.125, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.83, "rotation_up": 67.51, "upward_expansion": 37.51, "deceleration": 38.95, "rotation_down": 14.14, "downward_expansion": 21.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.821333, 6.581273, 6.440333, 6.546825 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.31, "trend_reference": 6.799684, "distance_from_trend": 0.07505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.848684, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.613545, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001484, "excess_performance": -0.06519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068634, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09929, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2946198, "relative_activity": 0.964984, "balance": 1.137935, "dry_up": 1.22975, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056772, "annualized_volatility": 0.320015, "from_high_reference": -0.283339, "from_low_reference": 0.296099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.799684, "fair_value_reference": 7.848684, "structural_low": 5.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.008325, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006154, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.456172, "worst_return": -0.156202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057886, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.018781, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.203676, "worst_return": -0.153417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145985, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313936, "worst_return": 0.029809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -29.527391, "energy": 20.460019, "activity_lines": [ 6.376667, 6.281091, 6.325, 6.519674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.82, "volume": 4527625, "typical_volume": 3106865.7, "trend": 6.829199, "fair_value": 7.86286, "relative_strength": -12.496488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.084652, "energy": 15.385477, "activity_lines": [ 6.544667, 6.396545, 6.359143, 6.515806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.31, "volume": 2946198, "typical_volume": 3053107.0, "trend": 6.799684, "fair_value": 7.848684, "relative_strength": -8.613545, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.79679, "energy": 40.039332, "activity_lines": [ 6.821333, 6.581273, 6.440333, 6.546825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }