{ "ticker": { "uuid": "764c58bf-0bc2-46c0-8d00-6a2da0f39364", "symbol": "002290", "name": "Suzhou Hesheng Special Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.681, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.008, "architecture_energy": 59.279, "architecture_maturity": 13.406, "architecture_confidence": 64.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.52, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 27.4, "deceleration": 49.93, "rotation_down": 67.52, "downward_expansion": 52.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.887331, 67.744694, 75.477529, 74.384313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 61.009998, "trend_reference": 71.154814, "distance_from_trend": -0.142574, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.299836, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.013542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.529555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006267, "excess_performance": -0.001132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.013542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.639725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055296, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.606575, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006267, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40204515, "relative_activity": 0.946028, "balance": 0.924318, "dry_up": 1.079634, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.214568, "annualized_volatility": 0.706086, "from_high_reference": -0.438383, "from_low_reference": 1.071647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.154814, "fair_value_reference": 30.299836, "structural_low": 48.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04851, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.268817, "worst_return": -0.04872, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.430752, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.353306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56129, "worst_return": 0.134185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.270447, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.224718, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.418506, "worst_return": 0.266667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 29.748169, "relative_strength": 2.952886, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.454789, "energy": 34.137701, "activity_lines": [ 68.767998, 76.074386, 79.480667, 76.243923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.169998, "volume": 48923572, "typical_volume": 41598817.65, "trend": 70.644481, "fair_value": 29.993939, "relative_strength": -6.080462, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.420308, "energy": 58.419486, "activity_lines": [ 61.011332, 70.550096, 76.981645, 75.005892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.009998, "volume": 40204515, "typical_volume": 42498234.3, "trend": 71.154814, "fair_value": 30.299836, "relative_strength": 5.529555, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.008077, "energy": 59.279182, "activity_lines": [ 58.887331, 67.744694, 75.477529, 74.384313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }