{ "ticker": { "uuid": "765c9e07-a625-4ebc-a256-16b42ba334ca", "symbol": "YSG", "name": "Yatsen Holding", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.13, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.976, "architecture_energy": 9.703, "architecture_maturity": 15.301, "architecture_confidence": 61.106, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.41, "rotation_up": 29.25, "upward_expansion": 34.47, "deceleration": 36.57, "rotation_down": 23.61, "downward_expansion": 40.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.429333, 3.395818, 3.217571, 3.270645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 3.442, "distance_from_trend": -0.012202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.59267, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.97009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137056, "excess_performance": -0.262681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.409701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.577824, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 681506, "relative_activity": 0.976711, "balance": 1.577824, "dry_up": 0.686398, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172509, "annualized_volatility": 0.753943, "from_high_reference": -0.682243, "from_low_reference": 0.581395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.442, "fair_value_reference": 4.59267, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.071023, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.12259, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.759615, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091667, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.101876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.498789, "worst_return": -0.221917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12157, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.273608, "worst_return": -0.43775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.328244, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.666062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117773, "active": false }, { 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770301.95, "trend": 3.522667, "fair_value": 4.642349, "relative_strength": -39.902032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.49425, "energy": 15.964509, "activity_lines": [ 3.489333, 3.289455, 3.154619, 3.292387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.32, "volume": 332565, "typical_volume": 727592.55, "trend": 3.495667, "fair_value": 4.623567, "relative_strength": -42.601847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.015092, "energy": 15.903894, "activity_lines": [ 3.458667, 3.328909, 3.167476, 3.279312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.43, "volume": 404137, "typical_volume": 710365.75, "trend": 3.468667, "fair_value": 4.607093, "relative_strength": -39.93528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.527678, "energy": 18.074372, "activity_lines": [ 3.456667, 3.372727, 3.192857, 3.275075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 681506, "typical_volume": 697756.3, "trend": 3.442, "fair_value": 4.59267, "relative_strength": -40.97009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.975874, "energy": 9.703248, "activity_lines": [ 3.429333, 3.395818, 3.217571, 3.270645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }