{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76631520-24c9-43c9-aace-3509e6f86c8a", "symbol": "EDOG", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST EMERGING SECTOR DIVID DOGS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.753, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.126, "architecture_energy": 15.133, "architecture_maturity": 15.932, "architecture_confidence": 58.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.36, "rotation_up": 39.58, "upward_expansion": 26.09, "deceleration": 38.92, "rotation_down": 17.63, "downward_expansion": 48.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.483327, 24.260988, 24.284278, 24.436558 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.8289, "trend_reference": 24.672549, "distance_from_trend": 0.006337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.705548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.076288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029644, "excess_performance": -0.155269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006337, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012276, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029644, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7072, "relative_activity": 0.501904, "balance": 0.419034, "dry_up": 0.615616, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025367, "annualized_volatility": 0.149123, "from_high_reference": -0.059011, "from_low_reference": 0.16536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.672549, "fair_value_reference": 20.705548, "structural_low": 22.95, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003873, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.012901, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.029735, "worst_return": -0.068243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048308, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.013499, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061059, "worst_return": -0.131662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.091321, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106549, "worst_return": -0.08429, 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24.06, "volume": 12332, "typical_volume": 15682.55, "trend": 24.611141, "fair_value": 20.624309, "relative_strength": -5.941423, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.408008, "energy": 24.131776, "activity_lines": [ 24.050313, 24.021145, 24.222047, 24.426072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.5887, "volume": 12983, "typical_volume": 15347.9, "trend": 24.64393, "fair_value": 20.663499, "relative_strength": -4.85475, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.311654, "energy": 16.678149, "activity_lines": [ 24.24818, 24.124598, 24.242348, 24.424624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.8289, "volume": 7072, "typical_volume": 14090.35, "trend": 24.672549, "fair_value": 20.705548, "relative_strength": -7.076288, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.125896, "energy": 15.133144, "activity_lines": [ 24.483327, 24.260988, 24.284278, 24.436558 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }