{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76713c4a-9238-406a-b9cc-4c3549d07a74", "symbol": "ALPRE", "name": "Predilife S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.082, "architecture_energy": 90.394, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.374, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 85.42, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.187, 1.568545, 2.080381, 2.366366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 2.695833, "distance_from_trend": -0.573416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.15066, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.722936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.368445, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.640625, "excess_performance": -0.693936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.573416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.722936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.633684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.640625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521157, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1081, "relative_activity": 0.370605, "balance": 0.521157, "dry_up": 1.927165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.254849, "annualized_volatility": 0.789487, "from_high_reference": -0.7125, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.695833, "fair_value_reference": 4.15066, "structural_low": 0.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.011075, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016255, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.566667, "worst_return": -0.484979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009288, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.030172, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.485356, "worst_return": -0.614094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049017, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.046703, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.15493, "worst_return": -0.196226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027431, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.614094, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.7, "volume": 337, "typical_volume": 3741.15, "trend": 5.895, "fair_value": 6.54859, "relative_strength": -6.834679, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.918038, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.439914, "energy": 91.399138, "activity_lines": [ 2.516, 2.652727, 2.835429, 2.937441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.33, "volume": 1404, "typical_volume": 5711.45, "trend": 3.029667, "fair_value": 4.2955, "relative_strength": -29.361713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.078525, "energy": 90.311251, "activity_lines": [ 2.429333, 2.573091, 2.776048, 2.890043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.805, "volume": 2284, "typical_volume": 5497.1, "trend": 2.983167, "fair_value": 4.271173, "relative_strength": -43.576654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.122117, "energy": 97.088318, "activity_lines": [ 2.205, 2.412, 2.670571, 2.811032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.3, "volume": 3894, "typical_volume": 5079.6, "trend": 2.9105, "fair_value": 4.241045, "relative_strength": -58.831515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.207697, "energy": 98.797377, "activity_lines": [ 1.865333, 2.180818, 2.523119, 2.702441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 8380, "typical_volume": 3550.25, "trend": 2.832167, "fair_value": 4.209635, "relative_strength": -69.529793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -97.888364, "energy": 99.120666, "activity_lines": [ 1.495667, 1.916545, 2.351048, 2.575957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 9130, "typical_volume": 3287.15, "trend": 2.7665, "fair_value": 4.179827, "relative_strength": -61.479937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.999349, "energy": 92.535146, "activity_lines": [ 1.309333, 1.732818, 2.213405, 2.470656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 1081, "typical_volume": 2916.85, "trend": 2.695833, "fair_value": 4.15066, "relative_strength": -63.368445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.082065, "energy": 90.393523, "activity_lines": [ 1.187, 1.568545, 2.080381, 2.366366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }