{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7671eb51-6445-4105-a024-e4016070b708", "symbol": "300256", "name": "Jiangxi Firstar Panel Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.578, "architecture_energy": 57.58, "architecture_maturity": 96.125, "architecture_confidence": 93.091, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 26.36, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 60.35, "rotation_down": 54.51, "downward_expansion": 83.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.59, 2.808333, 3.013118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.68, "trend_reference": 3.312, "distance_from_trend": -0.190821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.462244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.857254, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.33, "excess_performance": -0.3374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225935, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745257, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147506646, "relative_activity": 1.392752, "balance": 0.745257, "dry_up": 1.221167, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091561, "annualized_volatility": 0.324049, "from_high_reference": -0.482625, "from_low_reference": 0.165217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.312, "fair_value_reference": 3.462244, "structural_low": 2.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.030516, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.056357, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 1.142857, "worst_return": -0.17193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003534, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.057316, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.705882, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106383, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.130374, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.374332, "worst_return": -0.37037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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2.879091, 3.110333, 3.310903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.6, "volume": 123038317, "typical_volume": 104187497.95, "trend": 3.518667, "fair_value": 3.476731, "relative_strength": -39.506845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.156282, "energy": 85.626742, "activity_lines": [ 2.643333, 2.801091, 3.042524, 3.248108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.4, "volume": 130109906, "typical_volume": 105144672.25, "trend": 3.461667, "fair_value": 3.4725, "relative_strength": -37.806718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.607718, "energy": 91.107908, "activity_lines": [ 2.55, 2.700545, 2.961857, 3.175935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.42, "volume": 112026249, "typical_volume": 102732210.8, "trend": 3.405, "fair_value": 3.468013, "relative_strength": -36.74088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.22454, "energy": 85.478362, "activity_lines": [ 2.488, 2.622545, 2.890619, 3.108731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6, "volume": 127693283, "typical_volume": 103772861.4, "trend": 3.357, "fair_value": 3.465, "relative_strength": -30.193915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.772713, "energy": 65.060077, "activity_lines": [ 2.513333, 2.593091, 2.843, 3.056796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.68, "volume": 147506646, "typical_volume": 105910208.7, "trend": 3.312, "fair_value": 3.462244, "relative_strength": -30.857254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.578251, "energy": 57.579729, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.59, 2.808333, 3.013118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }