{ "ticker": { "uuid": "76781467-abb4-4fdc-805a-a3fc73187f74", "symbol": "FAI", "name": "FIRST TRUST BLOOMBERG ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.306, "architecture_energy": 27.502, "architecture_maturity": 66.526, "architecture_confidence": 89.606, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.01, "rotation_up": 32.83, "upward_expansion": 57.82, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 19.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.567333, 51.713495, 51.107911, 48.751399 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 54.6, "trend_reference": 45.88635, "distance_from_trend": 0.189896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.365704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.423146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.569743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.389037, "excess_performance": 0.263412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.423146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016533, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.125697, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.389037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618311, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209738, "relative_activity": 0.886711, "balance": 0.618311, "dry_up": 0.947083, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071233, "annualized_volatility": 0.330372, "from_high_reference": -0.062983, "from_low_reference": 0.536314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.88635, "fair_value_reference": 38.365704, "structural_low": 35.5396, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109257, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12138, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 30.236044, "volume": 8306, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 30.367594, "volume": 19476, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"up", "direction": 50.71891, "energy": 45.310605, "activity_lines": [ 52.67424, 52.705869, 49.728355, 47.248462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.65, "volume": 370156, "typical_volume": 215852.2, "trend": 44.92655, "fair_value": 37.920384, "relative_strength": 7.424611, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.326487, "energy": 31.482014, "activity_lines": [ 51.599, 52.203689, 50.03125, 47.572276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.69, "volume": 173738, "typical_volume": 223094.45, "trend": 45.164753, "fair_value": 38.042766, "relative_strength": 5.714736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.965436, "energy": 23.254462, "activity_lines": [ 50.398667, 51.546262, 50.192788, 47.81508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.55, "volume": 142440, "typical_volume": 228614.95, "trend": 45.472297, "fair_value": 38.183296, "relative_strength": 8.259416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.18497, "energy": 20.643218, "activity_lines": [ 50.260333, 51.254196, 50.48566, 48.162515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.6, "volume": 209738, "typical_volume": 236534.8, "trend": 45.88635, "fair_value": 38.365704, "relative_strength": 12.569743, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.305554, "energy": 27.501667, "activity_lines": [ 51.567333, 51.713495, 51.107911, 48.751399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }