{ "ticker": { "uuid": "767ec3dc-3f71-4819-9d90-fff7d97d1e63", "symbol": "UVE", "name": "Universal Insurance Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.58, "architecture_energy": 51.096, "architecture_maturity": 34.319, "architecture_confidence": 89.906, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.29, "rotation_up": 62.84, "upward_expansion": 82.46, "deceleration": 60.08, "rotation_down": 19.41, "downward_expansion": 6.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.633145, 41.738834, 40.257125, 38.765144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.15, "trend_reference": 36.511722, "distance_from_trend": 0.209201, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.669833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.865243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.512367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.404312, "excess_performance": 0.278687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.865243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.185124, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.404312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.292314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 966058, "relative_activity": 0.956916, "balance": 2.292314, "dry_up": 1.155935, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070366, "annualized_volatility": 0.319361, "from_high_reference": -0.021281, "from_low_reference": 0.927513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.511722, "fair_value_reference": 23.669833, "structural_low": 29.961632, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.017606, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.018233, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.42166, "worst_return": -0.271488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.116951, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.063178, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.257272, "worst_return": -0.188364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.165726, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.065011, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.269268, "worst_return": -0.183328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 23.093824, "relative_strength": 11.049495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.01858, "energy": 50.764991, "activity_lines": [ 40.696329, 39.832953, 38.756381, 37.329178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.458243, "volume": 1046287, "typical_volume": 1000434.75, "trend": 35.638662, "fair_value": 23.273047, "relative_strength": 18.456516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.350713, "energy": 48.782296, "activity_lines": [ 41.002577, 40.230133, 39.135262, 37.721683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.71, "volume": 1319294, "typical_volume": 1012708.8, "trend": 36.047699, "fair_value": 23.469504, "relative_strength": 22.453755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.819962, "energy": 49.879896, "activity_lines": [ 41.835528, 40.987484, 39.698023, 38.242415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.15, "volume": 966058, "typical_volume": 1009553.85, "trend": 36.511722, "fair_value": 23.669833, "relative_strength": 18.512367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.580179, "energy": 51.095913, "activity_lines": [ 42.633145, 41.738834, 40.257125, 38.765144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }