{ "ticker": { "uuid": "768697cb-4709-487a-9cdf-842835782f20", "symbol": "600864", "name": "Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.046, "architecture_energy": 38.351, "architecture_maturity": 66.76, "architecture_confidence": 94.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.06, "rotation_up": 27.59, "upward_expansion": 18.53, "deceleration": 42.27, "rotation_down": 35.87, "downward_expansion": 66.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.348584, 5.306379, 5.506362, 5.764863 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.39, "trend_reference": 6.086951, "distance_from_trend": -0.114499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.065959, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.568378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174579, "excess_performance": -0.131375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00665, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108021432, "relative_activity": 0.497976, "balance": 0.674707, "dry_up": 0.641716, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057744, "annualized_volatility": 0.337301, "from_high_reference": -0.384, "from_low_reference": 0.071571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.086951, "fair_value_reference": 6.065959, "structural_low": 5.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.022894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013052, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.26556, "worst_return": -0.22242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058917, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003973, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.364979, "worst_return": -0.119217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069446, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001496, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.232381, "worst_return": -0.185736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.534198, "energy": 58.547803, "activity_lines": [ 5.253568, 5.290652, 5.671479, 5.923366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.200047, "volume": 169598358, "typical_volume": 223001333.35, "trend": 6.173284, "fair_value": 6.060871, "relative_strength": -18.796943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.556934, "energy": 54.968011, "activity_lines": [ 5.237685, 5.260143, 5.595967, 5.857222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.48, "volume": 134447020, "typical_volume": 223924503.1, "trend": 6.128284, "fair_value": 6.06364, "relative_strength": -14.325833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.356489, "energy": 48.031092, "activity_lines": [ 5.319117, 5.290716, 5.553117, 5.812494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.39, "volume": 108021432, "typical_volume": 216920984.9, "trend": 6.086951, "fair_value": 6.065959, "relative_strength": -17.568378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.04647, "energy": 38.351224, "activity_lines": [ 5.348584, 5.306379, 5.506362, 5.764863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }