{ "ticker": { "uuid": "768a0874-3fae-4224-9d9c-8f04b6d0c122", "symbol": "FT", "name": "Franklin Universal Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 61.898, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.883, "architecture_energy": 43.684, "architecture_maturity": 23.62, "architecture_confidence": 93.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.81, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 12.62, "deceleration": 35.31, "rotation_down": 52.53, "downward_expansion": 76.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.924176, 7.955736, 7.973899, 7.985505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.83, "trend_reference": 7.991816, "distance_from_trend": -0.020248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.804833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.303632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014037, "excess_performance": -0.139662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00907, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150653, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113036, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208298, "relative_activity": 1.149835, "balance": 0.686392, "dry_up": 0.953736, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017969, "annualized_volatility": 0.102491, "from_high_reference": -0.052378, "from_low_reference": 0.051424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.991816, "fair_value_reference": 6.804833, "structural_low": 7.738323, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005996, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 9.2e-05, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.048016, "worst_return": -0.073209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008462, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035467, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090524, "worst_return": -0.134784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026262, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094576, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.152354, "worst_return": 0.006538, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.822126, "energy": 7.751506, "activity_lines": [ 7.980332, 7.982449, 7.989426, 7.995948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.83, "volume": 208298, "typical_volume": 181154.7, "trend": 7.991816, "fair_value": 6.804833, "relative_strength": -11.303632, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.883383, "energy": 43.684032, "activity_lines": [ 7.924176, 7.955736, 7.973899, 7.985505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }