{ "ticker": { "uuid": "768d00b2-d8e8-4830-aaee-add773316127", "symbol": "BAND", "name": "Bandwidth Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.572, "architecture_energy": 21.286, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.218, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.79, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 59.77, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 33.17, "downward_expansion": 21.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.657333, 57.790182, 56.10019, 48.110086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.96, "trend_reference": 37.410667, "distance_from_trend": 0.335448, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.883429, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.512645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 63.67716, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.72003, "excess_performance": 2.532576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.335448, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.689936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.512645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.613075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.636772, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.888871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.72003, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.250616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5655706, "relative_activity": 0.999077, "balance": 1.250616, "dry_up": 1.128, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.280586, "annualized_volatility": 1.389456, "from_high_reference": -0.368235, "from_low_reference": 2.9968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.410667, "fair_value_reference": 19.883429, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049741, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050702, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.314756, "worst_return": -0.361897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.101591, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.127753, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197232, "worst_return": -0.49376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.113033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.083056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.443447, "worst_return": -0.391015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.356133, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.615101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.318339, "worst_return": -0.393927, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027591, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022774, "active": false }, { "regime": 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50.695859, "activity_lines": [ 59.51, 60.122909, 48.425762, 39.806753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 75.48, "volume": 7628426, "typical_volume": 4836482.6, "trend": 31.999667, "fair_value": 18.835801, "relative_strength": 173.137982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.028177, "energy": 58.561044, "activity_lines": [ 64.174667, 63.255455, 52.005429, 42.741419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.81, "volume": 4175641, "typical_volume": 4925536.95, "trend": 33.897333, "fair_value": 19.204776, "relative_strength": 161.182313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.663366, "energy": 59.169274, "activity_lines": [ 67.397333, 65.164, 54.948143, 45.309828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.8, "volume": 5337458, "typical_volume": 5032535.05, "trend": 35.384, "fair_value": 19.494263, "relative_strength": 114.677351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.04311, "energy": 50.360219, "activity_lines": [ 66.185333, 64.490364, 56.475667, 46.980968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.14, "volume": 10373327, "typical_volume": 5453892.3, "trend": 36.214667, "fair_value": 19.65125, "relative_strength": 37.627629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.807662, "energy": 25.514708, "activity_lines": [ 57.526, 59.954364, 55.829619, 47.22329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.96, "volume": 5655706, "typical_volume": 5660931.15, "trend": 37.410667, "fair_value": 19.883429, "relative_strength": 63.67716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.57182, "energy": 21.285702, "activity_lines": [ 53.657333, 57.790182, 56.10019, 48.110086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }