{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7696c7bd-453e-4c63-957f-7f87c0f9183b", "symbol": "2496", "name": "Success Prime Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.092, "architecture_energy": 87.783, "architecture_maturity": 18.757, "architecture_confidence": 84.401, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 8.97, "upward_expansion": 21.52, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 83.1, "downward_expansion": 99.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.306667, 60.547272, 62.292857, 63.264863 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 59.0, "trend_reference": 64.443305, "distance_from_trend": -0.084467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.680673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.398604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116653, "excess_performance": -0.558025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019268, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.353986, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94446, "relative_activity": 0.984428, "balance": 0.636568, "dry_up": 1.488903, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029726, "annualized_volatility": 0.102625, "from_high_reference": -0.141258, "from_low_reference": 0.027875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.443305, "fair_value_reference": 62.680673, "structural_low": 57.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005336, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.016904, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.0462, "worst_return": -0.04, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001009, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030004, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.043503, "worst_return": -0.055124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005342, "worst_return": -0.031114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -84.307744, "energy": 82.408704, "activity_lines": [ 62.299999, 63.343637, 64.201626, 64.716065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.0, "volume": 155149, "typical_volume": 97824.7, "trend": 65.05934, "fair_value": 62.368605, "relative_strength": -33.824374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.648113, "energy": 86.867213, "activity_lines": [ 61.293333, 62.627273, 63.744861, 64.37752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.099998, "volume": 175229, "typical_volume": 99266.7, "trend": 64.844426, "fair_value": 62.473155, "relative_strength": -33.123234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.427435, "energy": 90.533519, "activity_lines": [ 60.319999, 61.834545, 63.229253, 63.993046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.200001, "volume": 146557, "typical_volume": 97826.8, "trend": 64.642415, "fair_value": 62.577291, "relative_strength": -33.785498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.77969, "energy": 88.919837, "activity_lines": [ 59.666666, 61.158182, 62.755238, 63.62889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 59.0, "volume": 94446, "typical_volume": 95939.95, "trend": 64.443305, "fair_value": 62.680673, "relative_strength": -35.398604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.092217, "energy": 87.782859, "activity_lines": [ 59.306667, 60.547272, 62.292857, 63.264863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }